Short Publication • Macro / Gold Equities

Gold Macro Playbook 2026

A simple positioning framework for a world of sticky inflation, higher oil, and flat to slightly negative real rates. In that setup, margin quality matters more than size.
RGLD = defensive alpha
AEM = low-cost growth
NEM = scale with drag
SSRM = turnaround risk
Macro assumptions
Gold
$2,200 → $2,600/oz
Oil
$80 → $110/bbl
Inflation / Costs
AISC +10–20%
Real Rates
Flat / slightly negative

Relative positioning

Metric RGLD NEM SSRM AEM
Type Royalty Major miner Turnaround Low-cost leader
AISC ❌ N/A ~$1,350 → $1,680 ~$2,200–2,400 ~$1,300–1,350
Oil sensitivity ❌ None ⚠️ Medium 🔴 High 🟢 Low
Margin @ $2,500 gold 🔥 ~80–90% ~30–35% ~0–10% ~40–50%
Break-even gold ~$400–600 ~$1,600 ~$2,200+ ~$1,300
FCF leverage to gold High Medium Very high (if survives) High
Risk Low Medium High Low

What happens if oil rises +$30?

  • RGLD: ~no impact
  • AEM: AISC +$50–100 → manageable
  • NEM: AISC +$100–200 → margins compress
  • SSRM: AISC +$150–300 → margins disappear

Sensitivity to gold at $2,500

  • RGLD: almost full upside → +70–90% margin expansion
  • AEM: +~$1,200 margin/oz → strong FCF growth
  • NEM: +~$800 margin/oz → decent but diluted
  • SSRM: barely positive unless costs fall

Clean takeaway

Best positioned (this macro)

  • RGLD → inflation + oil hedge, pure margin exposure
  • AEM → best operator, low-cost leverage

Acceptable

  • NEM → scale and liquidity, but cost inflation drag

Speculative

  • SSRM only works if costs normalize
  • and Çöpler restarts successfully
👉 Oil ↑ = favor royalties + low AISC
👉 Avoid high AISC unless you want turnaround risk

Optimal simple allocation

40%
RGLD
Defensive alpha
40%
AEM
Core growth
20%
NEM
Liquidity / scale

Optional: replace NEM with WPM for even cleaner exposure.